After yet another defeat against the red-hot Florida Panthers last
night, all of the citizens in Rangerstown must admit: this team needs
adjustments. For whatever reason, the roster so relatively similar to last season’s President’s Trophy winners
has fallen oh so far from its former self. The December slump has now
officially extended into the fresh soil of 2016. The inherent problems
plaguing this team have revealed themselves to be less-than-temporary.
The success enjoyed in October & November has almost completely
evaporated, as Broadway is now pushed to the very cusp of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Here are the facts:
* The team currently sits with a tad over $1.5 million in actual salary cap space as of today.
* If the roster remains the same up until the NHL Trade Deadline
(February 29th) then that figure projects to be a hair over $3.355
million.
* This leaves (23 games & 57 calendar days) remaining for Jeff
Gorton to pull the trigger on any trades in hopes of improving this
free-falling team.
Here is the question:
Within the next eight weeks, is there a potential trade or two
that could put the Rangers back as a playoff-bound team with a chance at
winning it all?
If the answer is “no,” then the type of trades that we should discuss are more akin to the Broadway Purge of 2004
than anything else. That is to suggest liquidating the more sizable
contracts of the elder players for younger, less-immediate talent.
Probably doing so in a manner which shies away from a “true” re-build,
as to not stray too far from a window of contention before Henrik Lundqvist, absorbing 12% of the team’s cap space, is rocking chair bound and no longer able to contribute.
Realistically, I don’t think this is likely at all, even if it truly is the optimal course of action. Why?
Gorton, in his first year as General Manager, probably thought (as
did most of us) that he was inheriting a team surely capable of at
least making the 2016 postseason. And while that still may be true,
desperate trade(s) are almost assuredly going to be the knee-jerk
response, in an effort to right this ship more so than systematically
recalibrate it.
In other words, the team is bottoming out and regressing, but it hasn’t hit rock bottom. You can ask fans of Anaheim or Columbus
about that. Thus, a total one-eighty in the mind of the front office of
this organization isn’t particularly likely to occur; or at least in
the next two months.
That conclusion, coupled with the apparently obvious truth that
this team needs SOMETHING, leads me to believe we’re in for another
classic New York Rangers’ trade deadline. One where small or remedial
improvements will come at greater expense. Here’s a brief look-in at
some of the team’s past deadline moves:
So…
I’ve crunched the numbers on three different HYPOTHETICAL types of
trades (broken down into three parts). As always, when submitting these
types of ideas, I want to urge that I do not nesecerrily condone nor
support these swaps. I’m merely posing them, as to analyze & exhume
what they would mean, what ramifications they would have, and what the
Rangers’ roster would then look like (and at what cost).
Let’s get started.
TRADE PROPOSAL 1: “Forward Rental Upgrades”
This hypothetical is in the spirit of those deals for rentals like Nik Antropov, Ryane Clowe, Jody Shelley, or James Sheppard.
By “rental” I mean someone whom is set to be an unrestricted free agent
after the playoffs are over, and in all of these cases, the player was
never re-signed after acquisition. Meaning the aggregate price paid for
these players was all for a single playoff push a piece, as is the
standard reality and risk of acquiring a “rental.”
So let’s continue this common practice into 2016. Here in Part 1,
we’ll focus solely on rental forwards, as we assume Dan Boyle, Dan
Girardi & Marc Staal have refused to waive their
No-Movement-Clauses, and we’re not particularly keen on trading any of
the other four defensemen. What kind of rentals should we aim for?
Personally, it would seem the Rangers could benefit from a right-handed shot in the top two or three lines. Derick Brassard, Emerson Etem, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Oscar Lindberg, J.T. Miller, Rick Nash, & Mats Zuccarello are all lefties. In fact, Jesper Fast & Derek Stepan
are the only right-handed shots in the entire top-nine (and Fast
ideally in the first three lines is highly debatable, in my humble
opinion).
But even more specifically, I truly believe Kreider could benefit
from a linemate who is not only right-handed, but a more
offense-oriented opposite winger. When looking at his 2015-16 slump, and
trying to determine causation… look no further than his new batch of
linemates this season:
So let’s set our sights on a rental winger whom is right-handed and more offensive-oriented in his game.
My candidates are Radim Vrbata (Vancouver) and Kris Versteeg
(Carolina), both of whom match this description, and will be
unrestricted free agents in July. And frankly, while probably premature
to speculate this, but here it goes: it would be less than shocking if
both or either tested free agency and did not re-sign with their current
clubs.
However, as we’ve alluded to, deadline markets are usually a
seller’s market, thus making temporary acquisitions quite pricey. So
before gobbling up one of these rental wingers for a premium draft pick
or prospect, is there any “cheaper” alternatives?
I spot one: Sam Gagner (Philadelphia).
Here’s the scoop: Gagner has had a dissapointing season in Philly.
He was recently waived (for the Flyers to make cap space for Mark Streit
returning from injury), cleared waivers, and assigned to the minor
leagues. I honestly believe the Rangers may’ve been interested, but
simply couldn’t claim him as they did not have the cap space available.
Now, Philly is still being charged for $2.25 of SG’s $3.2 million
cap hit, which they assuredly do not like. The team is tight for cap
space, and already being charged $4.05 million for Andy MacDonald’s minor league burial as well.
So…
What if the Rangers traded for Gagner, with Philadelphia retaining
some salary? This would alleviate Philly’s cap commitment to
minor-league Gagner, offer an attempted remedy to the Rangers need for a
right-handed winger, AND leave Philly getting SOMETHING for Gagner days
after they risked losing him for NOTHING.
Again, as no team claimed him on waivers, Philadelphia wouldn’t
charge as steep a price as other rental teams, even configuring Gagner
is admittedly a (likely) step down from Vrbata or Versteeg.
How about:
NYR ACQUIRES: C/LW Sam Gagner (50% salary retained by PHI)
PHI ACQUIRES: 2016 5th Round Draft Pick
Given the normal trend of deadline rentals, this seems like a good
deal for New York, and Philly frees up $650,000 worth of cap hit AND
gains a draft pick without losing anything. So let’s go with this.
One thing I’d like to bring up with Vrbata, however, is this: he’s
struggled in Vancouver this season, after a successful campaign the
year before. Personally, I think his dynamic coupled with Kreider and
Stepan would be just what we’re looking for. So let’s explore this
further.
I’ve written before about my theory
that the Rangers’ ideal trade fodder for this deadline would be giving
up a goaltending prospect. The team has four promising netminders in the
system, where if they were to find a team potentially interested, it
could be a natural fit. And my eyes, in this respect, are set on
Vancouver.
The Canucks currently have Ryan Miller (who turns 36 in July) & Jacob Markstrom (26) on their roster. The two minor-league goalies they have under contract are Richard Bachman (29) & Joe Cannata
(26). Frankly, I doubt the team’s first thoughts are “long-term
goaltending solution” reside in any of these four. Miller and Markstrom
are also 18 months removed from unrestricted free agency.
Now, Vancouver does have a promising goalie in the pipleline: Thatcher Demko
(Boston College). So the team is not completely devoid of goalie
prospects. But with Demko likely to complete his senior year of college
next season, and no guarantee of ever signing a contract with the
Canucks… it could be another 18 months until his first professional
game.
Whereas a Rangers’ asset like Brandon Halverson or Mackenzie Skapski,
both of which are actually under NHL contract, would be immediately
available to the team’s development in the AHL/ECHL. Not only that, but
perhaps the Canucks’ front office could be keen on someone like Emerson
Etem, an upcoming restricted free agent with a meek contract and limited
upside; a player whom Alain Vigneault has, for better or worse, shown
very little interest in giving a regular role.
So, let’s say in addition to nabbing Gagner from Philadelphia, the
Rangers also acquire Vrbata from Vancouver. Of course, this should go
without saying, but these trades assume both trade partners are no
longer in the playoff picture come late February, thus willing to sell
these assets to New York.
NYR ACQUIRES: LW/RW Radim Vrbata
VAN ACQUIRES: G Mackenzie Skapski, RW Emerson Etem & 2016 4th Round Pick
Perhaps both deals with Philly & Vancouver are on the
optimistic side for New York, but whatever. You get the gist. The team
gives up a few medium-quality draft picks, a goalie prospect & Etem
for a couple of possession-positive righty wingers whom are only under
contract for another 6 months.
Rangers’ Theoretically-Modified Lineup:
Zuccarello ———– Brassard —————- Nash
Vrbata —————- Stepan ————— Kreider
Gagner ———- Hayes/Lindberg ———— Miller
Fast ——————- Moore ——- Glass/Stalberg
McDonagh ———- Klein
Yandle ———– McIlrath
Staal ——- Boyle/Girardi
Lundqvist
Raanta
(NYR would be $105,745 under the cap if these moves were done on the Trade Deadline day.)
These are band-aids more than reconstructive surgery, to be sure.
But it could certainly be worth a shot, don’t you think? Vrbata plays
with Kreider and Stepan, Gagner hopefully brings veteran wiley to the
very young third line, and the Zuccarello-Brassard-Nash connection
remains intact. Hopefully the pressure to be their line’s
offensively-driving force is lifted from Kreider & Hayes
respectively and they go back to roles more similar to their 2014-15
season.
And if Gagner and/or Vrbata fail miserably as Rangers? They’ll be gone in July.
This has been Part 1.
In Part 2, we will tinker and examine with ideas more akin to that
of a bigger deadline deal (a la the 2015 Keith Yandle trade), this time
targeting changes in the defense. And in Part 3, we will talk about
“shooting the moon”; a trade of galactic proportions which would require
the stars to allign, so to speak, and a good amount of luck.
Thank you for reading, stay tuned!
… To be continued …
